Vision Galveston is committed to the idea that everyone who works on Galveston Island and serves this community should be able to live here if they choose. Yet, for many workers and families living on the island, owning or renting a home is increasingly out of reach.
Rising home prices appear to be driving many families off the island. In a previous post, we showed how Galveston has lost a net total of 775 young families over the past ten years. Over that same time period, home sale prices increased by 80% – a far higher rate than people’s wages.
In this post, we dig deeper into the data to paint a fuller picture of who these families and children are.
Who have we lost?
Despite a steady increase in Galveston’s population over the past ten years, the number of families with children living on the island has been in decline. Between 2010 and 2019, Galveston lost an estimated 775 families, a 16% decline over ten years.
Who are the families and children Galveston has lost? Data from the American Community Survey can shed some light on who these families are.
For this analysis, we compared the demographic and social characteristics of children under 18 living in family households in 2012 vs. 2019. (Data on the characteristics of children in 2010 and 2011 is not available for Galveston.) During this period, the number of children living on Galveston Island dropped by 10% from 9,500 in 2012 to 8,500 in 2019.
The chart below shows the net change in the number of children in Galveston who fall into different groups based on race-ethnicity, school attendance, and housing. These data reflect families leaving the island (out-migration) as well as new families moving onto the island (in-migration). Negative numbers indicate that more children of that group have left than have moved to the island.
The data does not tell us exactly who moved in and who moved out. By comparing these two time points, though, we can gain a better sense of the changes that Galveston’s child population has undergone.
Most of the children Galveston has lost during this period are Black and Hispanic children. By 2019, there were an estimated 400 fewer Black/African-American children living on the island and 500 fewer Hispanic/Latino children compared with 2012. By contrast, there were roughly similar numbers of non-Hispanic white children and children identified with other race-ethnic groups in 2019 as in 2012.
Children attending public schools saw the largest net drop in population. In 2019, there were nearly 900 fewer children attending public schools in Galveston than in 2012.
There was also a large shift in children’s housing arrangements in Galveston. Between 2019 and 2012, Galveston experienced a net loss of 1,700 children living in homes owned by their parent(s) or caregiver(s). At the same time, this loss was offset by a net gain in the number of children living in rental units.
What does this mean? Well, the change in children’s housing reflects a combination of factors. For one, it suggests that homeowner families have been leaving at higher rates than renters and, likewise, that renter families have been coming in greater numbers.
But this change also stems from shifts in the housing market. During this period, home prices soared and made homeownership much harder for new families moving to the island. With fewer affordable homes for sale, many working families opted to rent when moving to Galveston.
The result is fewer children overall and a greater share of children on the island living in rental units.
The cost of losing families and children
There are real costs to having fewer families and children live on Galveston Island. In our previous post, we outlined many of the economic and financial costs, including the loss of revenue for local schools.
Another important cost is the increase in the commuter rate. The loss of young families does not appear to be due to a lack of economic opportunities on the island. Instead, workers who would otherwise live here are opting to commute to work each day. In fact, over two-thirds of firefighters, police officers, and UTMB employees who work here live off the island.
More broadly, the disappearance of children and families on the island represents a threat to the character and future of Galveston. For most of its history, Galveston has been a growing city of economic opportunity that has made room for businesses and families alike. Rising housing prices are crowding out many working families who serve this community, like healthcare workers, police officers, and firefighters. Addressing affordable housing will ensure that Galveston continues to be a place where families can and want to live.
If keeping Galveston affordable and family-friendly is important to you, Vision Galveston asks you to engage with your civic leaders and city council members and ask them to support attainable housing policies and sustainable neighborhood development. You can find contact information for your city council member here.
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